The consultancy firm Safras & Mercado predicted on July 22 that Brazil will be able to export a record 91.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2023, up from a previously estimated 77.2 million this year, on the back of expected recovery for 2022/23 crops, after a drought in the last year’s summer.
In its first survey of supply and demand for 2023, the consultancy said that the total supply of soybeans is expected to increase by 18%, to 154.53 million tonnes – considering the production of 151.5 million, inventories of 2.9 million, and a small portion of imports.
“The recovery of Brazilian production, with a new record production potential, should also lead to a new record in exports,” said Safras analyst Luiz Fernando Roque in a note.
“Brazil should recover the portion lost to the US due to the 2021/22 production shortfall,” he added.
Supported by good industrial margins, the consultancy projects the crushing of 49.5 million tonnes in 2023 and 47.9 million tonnes in 2022, with an increase of 3% between one season and another.
According to Roque, there is still a chance that biodiesel demand may rise, leading to an increase in crushing.
The total demand for soy (between domestic and foreign consumption) is estimated at 144.6 million tonnes, up 13% over the previous year.
According to the data, 2023 ending stocks are expected to rise 239% to 9.92 million tonnes.
“With the likely super-harvest, ending inventories should climb strongly, even with the increase in consumption,” the expert said.
Soybean meal production is expected to reach 38.05 million tonnes in 2023, up 3%, Safras said.
In the same vein, shipments will be up 3% to 18.7 million tonnes, while domestic consumption is projected to be 19.2 million, up 2%. Thus, stocks may rise 7% to 2.4 million tonnes.
Soybean oil production is expected to increase by 3% to 10.05 million tonnes.
Brazil is expected to export 1.9 million tonnes of the product, with a drop of 10%, and, on the other hand, domestic consumption should rise 3%, to 8.15 million tonnes.
“Biodiesel use should rise by 10% to 4.5 million tonnes. As a result, inventories (of soybean oil) are expected to climb 6% to 333,000 tonnes.”
Source: Money Times
